NBA 2013-2014: Best offseason moves - #12 Miami Heat

Seems appropriate having the two teams who reached last June's NBA Finals at the bottom of this list. For the two-time defending champion Miami Heat, the same principle applies from last year's offseason: if it ain't broke...

Miami was closer to the top of my list prior to last season because they added to their outside shooting with Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis. As I wrote after the Heat acquired former no. 1 overall pick Greg Oden in August, signing the big man to a two-year veteran minimum contract is low-risk and a potentially high reward. Miami has been successful offensively and defensively sticking to their smaller line ups, in large part due to the versatility of LeBron James, which has often made them vulnerable against bigger teams, but not fully destructible. The Heat might need an Oden-like presence to grind out a third straight title, but they might not. Still, if Oden continues his reported progress and can give Miami productive minutes, their defense becomes more anchored in the paint and they get much needed assistance on the glass. 

I also can't dismiss the Heat bringing back Michael Beasley, who if determined, could give Erik Spoelstra an individual scoring option coming off the bench. If these additions evolve into thorough contributors, in addition to a healthy Dwayne Wade, chalk it up to a Miami Heat dynasty.

- Martin S. @marley_mcfly

+NBA 

2013 NBA Finals: Game 7 notes

And so, it comes down to this...

Even though four out of the six games thus far have been double-digit victories, my expectations for these NBA Finals were fully met and conceptually accurate. What intrigued my senses most, leading to the estimation that we would see a deciding seventh game in these Finals, was the clear notion that the Miami Heat had not yet seen a team that could score with them. Milwaukee, Chicago, and Indiana were clearly deficient in that regard, making them all inevitable means towards another Eastern Conference title for the Heat. 

The San Antonio Spurs have presented a more potent challenge for the defending champions, as expected. The best passing team in basketball has put doubters and low-IQ basketball fans on notice with their consummately savvy play, defensive discipline, and veteran leadership. With the exception of Game 2 (84) the Spurs have scored 90 points or more in every game, including at least 100 points in four out of six games. Their offense has a special cohesive quality, in that you hardly ever see just one guy carrying the load. We've seen Tony Parker make big plays/shots starting with the go-ahead shot from the Spurs' Game 1 victory; we've seen Danny Green emerge into the spotlight, setting a new NBA Finals record for made three pointers (26); we've seen Kawhi Leonard accept his daunting assignment of LeBron James, while finding ways to contribute offensively through rebounding and wise shot selection, and that's without mentioning the play of Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili and Gary Neal (both sporadically), and Boris Diaw, who has held LeBron James to 3-18 shooting while defending him in games 5 and 6. 

The Miami Heat have seen their struggles in their third consecutive NBA Finals appearance. They have been held under 90 points twice in this series, including the Game 3 blow out loss when they could only accumulate 77 points. Fluctuation has been the key issue for Miami, which is a courteous way of saying inconsistent. Their inability to win consecutive games needs instant fixing if they are to win their second straight title tonight. Still, their MVP LeBron James has delivered each time his team's back was against the wall. After all, he is averaging 33.8 ppg in his Game 7 career, the highest of any player in NBA history. Playing on your home court and having the best player on the floor = advantage Miami for Game 7. Here are some interesting additional stats:

• The Miami Heat could become just the third team in history to win an NBA title without leading the series at all until Game 7 (other two: '69 Celtics & '78 Bullets).
• The Miami Heat could become the third team in history to win Game 7's in the Conference Finals and NBA Finals in the same season (other two: '62 Celtics & '88 Lakers).
• The San Antonio Spurs have not lost consecutive games with Duncan, Parker, and Ginobili in the line up since December 12-13, 2012.
• The defending champion has never lost at home in Game 7 of the Finals.
• Tim Duncan could become the seventh player in NBA history to with 5 NBA titles and an MVP in his career (other six: Russell, Kareem, Jordan, Cousy, Magic, Kobe).
• LeBron James could join Michael Jordan and Bill Russell as the only players to win back-to-back regular season MVP awards and NBA titles.

HERE'S WHAT I'LL BE LOOKING FOR IN TONIGHT'S GAME 7:

- Manu Ginobili/Dwayne Wade: Both players are the hidden catalysts for their respective Big 3's, and both have shown brief glimpses of their former greatness. Which ever one of these players can establish early productivity will likely be on the team that has early rhythm.

- Shot takers and shot makers: As simple as it is, both teams need to make perimeter shots. Chalmers-Allen-Miller-Bosh-Battier for Miami; Ginobili-Neal-Leonard-Green for San Antonio.

- Small ball: Both teams have flirted with their four-guard smaller line ups. Given the nature of Game 7, expect to see Tiago Splitter and Chris Andersen make appearances to keep things physical.

- LeBron James' points, field goal percentage, and +/- numbers are all extremely low with Dwayne Wade on the floor. Their ability to make plays for themselves and others will have enormous impact on the outcome.

- Efficiency: The Spurs pride themselves on getting the best shots possible. They will need to shoot a high percentage and get themselves great looks to sustain their half court attack.

- Body language and patience: For the home team, body language will be evident from an effort standpoint. The away team will need to be patient and aggressive at precisely the right times. Challenges for both teams for the final game of the NBA season.

2013 NBA Finals: Game 3 notes

After the Heat's Game 2 eruption, tonight's Game 3 in San Antonio will require adjustments and responses on both rosters.

The dynamics of the first two games of this year's NBA Finals have panned out inversely from my expectations. Though I suspected San Antonio would leave Miami with one victory, I felt the Spurs would find themselves having to adjust to the Heat's speed after a Game 1 loss. Instead, we saw a rested and fresh Spurs team execute a nearly mistake-free 92-88 victory in the initial "feel out game". 

Dwayne Wade's post-game comments, consistent with general speculation following the Eastern Conference Finals, alluded to the assured fatigue from Miami's seven-game series with the Indiana Pacers. Game 2 seemed replicant of Game 1 until the Heat closed the third quarter on a 14-3 run and a 10-point lead, which carried over to the dismantling 33-5 run by the defending champs and their 103-84 victory.

You'll see more about the historic implications of Game 3 tiebreakers in the NBA Finals below, but something must be said of the brilliant chess match between these two coaches. Gregg Popovich struck first blood with a dedicated defensive strategy and fluent execution in Game 1 (plus heroics from Tony Parker). Erik Spoelstra responded in Game 2 with more concerted double teams on Parker in ball screen situations, forcing the issue with their switching defense and forcing 13 more turnovers than in Game 1. 

Aside from Tony Parker's Game 1 performance, neither of these teams have really seen their stars dominate. One could argue that these Finals have been a story line of role players thus far. Mario Chalmers' 19 points and timely playmaking really sparked the Heat's run in Game 2, while Danny Green's perfection from three (5-5) was the only offensive lift for the Spurs (Parker, Ginobili, Duncan combined 10-33 in Game 2). As San Antonio looks to respond tonight for Game 3, here are some final notes and what I'll be particularly watching for:

- Of the 12 times the NBA Finals has been tied at 1-1, the team who wins Game 3 has won the series 11 times.

- The San Antonio Spurs have never trailed in an NBA Finals series, let alone lost one.

- The Miami Heat have not lost consecutive games since January.

- Turnovers: The broken record plays on for opponent's of Miami. The Spurs committed 17 turnovers in Game 2 to just 4 in Game 1. Both games their turnovers came early. Watch for the Spurs' early execution and ball security, and if Miami can find ways to make them uncomfortable on their home floor.

- Manu Ginobili's frantic style seems to have met it's finite match with a defense as fast and active as Miami's. The cost for effective play from Manu might simply be slowing down and making the low-risk plays to keep San Antonio's offense as fluid as possible.

- Shot takers and shot makers: Both teams depend on three point shooting to keep their offense spaced. For the Spurs- Danny Green, Manu Ginobili, Kawhi Leonard, and Gary Neal. For the Heat- Mario Chalmers, Mike Miller, Ray Allen, and Chris Bosh.

- Dwayne Wade went for 0 points in the second half of Game 2 and even expressed his sincere fatigue at halftime to Doris Burke. Miami might need more from Wade long term if it goes blow-for-blow these next three games in San Antonio.

- LeBron James: If his teammates don't make shots on the road, another scoring outing under 20 points likely won't cut it for the MVP. James is the almighty catalyst for the Heat, omnipotently making his presence felt. Expect it to magnify on the road, where stars truly must be stars.

2013 NBA Finals: Game 1 notes

Just one of many compelling elements to this year's NBA Finals is the impending clash of styles between these two teams. Not in the sense that they are different, but because they both like to and are highly capable of scoring the basketball.

Miami averages a league high of 108.4 points per 100 possessions, the most efficient this postseason. San Antonio is at second at 106.5. The Heat also lead the NBA in half-court efficiency, averaging .94 points per play, with the Spurs second at .93. Aside from the numbers, if you've watched either of these teams play you know they both have high-octane offensive attacks, likely giving the advantage to whichever team can find ways to neutralize the other and expose deficient match ups.

For San Antonio, the challenge is maintaining a their preferred uptempo pace against the fastest team in the NBA. The conventional plan would be to dictate a slower pace (a la Memphis, Chicago, Indiana) and look to attack the Heat where they struggle the most: in the paint and on the glass. Still, it will be intriguing to see how Miami fairs against the most potent offense than they've faced this entire postseason (by far). 

For Miami, it's all about LeBron James, or is it? Dwayne Wade came up big in Game 7 against Indiana but a quick turnaround for his third consecutive Finals trip is something to watch for as he battles his right knee injury. San Antonio doesn't necessarily have the interior grit of Indiana, but they make up for it in savvy instincts and effort. If this series is in fact going to remain uptempo, advantage Heat. 

Key match ups:

- LeBron James/Kawhi Leonard: Much has been written and discussed about the 21-year-old's match up against the four-time MVP. Even with his athletic 6'7 frame and astounding 7'3 wingspan, he still has the toughest work weeks of his career approaching.

- Tony Parker: I expect to see multiple assignments for the Frenchman, especially LeBron. With Miami's constantly "switching" defense, those chances are not uncommon. Still, neutralizing Parker has to be a top priority as the starting engine and crucial catalyst for the Spurs' offense.

- Tim Duncan/Chris Bosh: Playing against "his idol", Bosh is up against a Tim Duncan that looks nowhere near 37 years of age. Chris "Birdman" Andersen and Udonis Haslem can assist, but Chris Bosh is the only big for Miami that can look to win the individual match up with Duncan.

Notes for Game 1:

- Tempo, tempo, tempo: The beginning pace will be most indicative of how these teams want to play, particularly San Antonio, as they adjust to the speed of Miami's defense. 

- Rested or rusty: San Antonio coming off of the ten day break, their physical energy should be evident in the opening minutes.

- Bench play: The Spurs' bench has played a bit more productively than Miami's in these playoffs, we should see players from both benches look to assert themselves tonight. 

- TURNOVERS: As the case is with ever opponent of the Heat, if you turn it over  15 times or more, you're probably done for. How the Spurs handle the Miami defense in terms of ball security and their scoring attack will be vital.

In the NBA Finals, the team that has won Game 1 has gone on to win the series 71 percent of the time. The San Antonio Spurs are 4-0 in the NBA Finals. Miami wants to repeat. Stay tuned as I continue to track and share notes on the 2013 NBA Finals.