Are the Miami Heat being plagued by their own "March Madness?"

The month of March has not been great to the defending NBA champions. Their record in the month is currently 7-8, and Wednesday night they suffered a gut-wrenching loss to their bitter rivals, the Indiana Pacers. Is Miami vulnerable? Are their lackluster performances the product of mental and physical fatigue that is sure to come in the pursuit of a third straight NBA championship? Or, is Miami simply saving what they have left in the tank to blitz through the eastern conference when playoff time rolls around? If they have to roll through Indiana in the playoffs, that forceful blitz may be transformed into a humble stagger, because as of right now the battle for eastern conference supremacy would go through Indiana and the deranged Pacers crowd.

What's the reasoning behind Miami's seemingly lackadaisical play? One could accredit injuries as the reason they have been faltering as of late. LeBron James has complained of issues with his back and ankle. Dwyane Wade's availability has been sporadic due to lingering issues with his knees, and has recently been nagged by an Achilles issue. It's tough to sustain health throughout a full 82 game season, but where Miami can succeed is sharpness mentally. The best teams may go through stretches where they are hammered by ticky-tack injuries, but they never feel a chink in the armor mentally. That's what propels them to success. The greatest teams never folly in terms of execution, game planning or focus. It's possible the Heat are being crippled by a sense of boredom, or, they aren't the same team they were last year.

Whatever lull MIA is going through, it's evident through statistics that it's impacting
their record significantly. In the month of March, the Heat are allowing their opponents to shoot 46.1% from the field, 36.6% from three, and are giving up 11.3 offensive rebounds per game. They have given up 170 offensive rebounds through their 15 games in March. In this month,  Miami has allowed teams to score 100+ points on 7 different occasions. In the month of February, the Heat only allowed the opposition to score 100+ 3 times. In Miami's 8 March losses, they are allowing the
opposition to snag down 41 RPG, and allowing the opposition to shoot 40.8% from the three point line. Miami's defensive rotations have been off. The crispiness and fierceness that their defense usually plays with has been absent and teams are starting to figure out how to combat their blitzing scheme. Is this as vulnerable as we have seen the Miami Heat? Is the cloak of invincibility finally being stripped away? If they plan to recapture the magic that makes them such a fearing foe, it extends further than LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh's brilliance. They need help from the role players that make their offense and defense so fluent and ripe.

In March, Miami's role players have been playing horrific basketball. With the exception of Ray Allen, who has upped his PPG and shooting percentages in the month of March (11.9 PPG, 46.7% FG, 41.1% 3PT) Miami's "other guys" have been extremely unreliable. Shane Battier, known for his defensive prowess, sharp basketball mind, and ability to make important plays has been abysmal this month. Battier is averaging 2 PPG on 25% from the field and 22.2% from behind the arc. When mentioning Mario Chalmers and Norris Cole it doesn't get much more promising. Chalmers is averaging 8.2 PPG on 38.3% from the field, and Cole is providing Miami with 4.5 PPG on 35.6% from the field and 32.1% from downtown. If Miami wants to sustain the fluency that makes them such a potent offensive and defensive force, these guys must step up. With each ache of James' back. With each tweak of Wade's knee, these guys must provide Miami with some type of production to alleviate the heavy pressure that Wade and LeBron are under to play a near perfect basketball game.

The Miami Heat aren't concerned about home court advantage in the playoffs. The eons of experience they have, the focus they possess won't waver due to the experiences they have gone through since the establishment of the "Big Three." There isn't a stipulation they haven't faced: wild crowds on the road, a flurry of boos, an immense amount of hatred are all things the Heat have not only become accustomed to, but have utilized to further motivate them in their championship pursuit. They are capable of winning on the road in the most hostile environment. For Indiana, the story is completely different. Indiana hopes to be the ones representing the eastern conference in the championship round in June, and while this thought is feasible without the assurance of home court, it becomes even more realistic knowing things go through Bankers Life Fieldhouse. Indiana is younger and plays with a plethora of emotion, but outbursts such as the one Lance Stephenson had last night won't be tolerated on the road. At home, Indiana can play loosely, with a lot more freedom and higher spirits. Home court reinforces a bevy of positive notions for Indiana, allowing them possibly to reconstruct the way we view who is truly the powerhouse in the eastern conference. Although both teams are sluggish right now, a matchup in the ECF seems inevitable. Hopefully for Miami, this "March Madness" they are enduring right now, turns into "May Misery" for the Indiana Pacers as MIA hopes to waltz to their 4th straight NBA Finals as they attempt to claim a 3rd straight championship.

Is Miami's lackadaisical play a legitimate concern? Or are they just saving their energy for the deep playoff push they hope to have? Hit me on Twitter with your thoughts and comments (@wcboyer24) and as always, continue to support The Basketball Society.

NBA 2013-2014: Best offseason moves - #12 Miami Heat

Seems appropriate having the two teams who reached last June's NBA Finals at the bottom of this list. For the two-time defending champion Miami Heat, the same principle applies from last year's offseason: if it ain't broke...

Miami was closer to the top of my list prior to last season because they added to their outside shooting with Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis. As I wrote after the Heat acquired former no. 1 overall pick Greg Oden in August, signing the big man to a two-year veteran minimum contract is low-risk and a potentially high reward. Miami has been successful offensively and defensively sticking to their smaller line ups, in large part due to the versatility of LeBron James, which has often made them vulnerable against bigger teams, but not fully destructible. The Heat might need an Oden-like presence to grind out a third straight title, but they might not. Still, if Oden continues his reported progress and can give Miami productive minutes, their defense becomes more anchored in the paint and they get much needed assistance on the glass. 

I also can't dismiss the Heat bringing back Michael Beasley, who if determined, could give Erik Spoelstra an individual scoring option coming off the bench. If these additions evolve into thorough contributors, in addition to a healthy Dwayne Wade, chalk it up to a Miami Heat dynasty.

- Martin S. @marley_mcfly

+NBA 

Dwayne Wade (41 pts) vs. LeBron James (42 pts) - 2009 #tbt

Kevin Durant thinks his former teammate James Harden is a top ten player over Dwayne Wade. Though I'm not fully sold on his premise, I thought I'd share a Throwback Thursday from a time when the argument would be fully dismissed. In what would be the final regular season for LeBron James in Cleveland, this was one of the last epic encounters between Wade and James before they would become teammates.

The video shows highlights from LeBron and Wade throughout the game, but most enjoyable to me is watching the old "Flash" dominate the basketball and play the point-man-decision maker for the Miami offense. Watching him operate the high pick-and-roll and facilitate was special because of his shifty nature. Wade finished the game with 41 points, 7 rebounds, 9 assists, and 7 steals. LeBron James countered with his own 42, and led the Cavaliers to a 107-100 victory. 

                       

2013 NBA Finals: Game 7 notes

And so, it comes down to this...

Even though four out of the six games thus far have been double-digit victories, my expectations for these NBA Finals were fully met and conceptually accurate. What intrigued my senses most, leading to the estimation that we would see a deciding seventh game in these Finals, was the clear notion that the Miami Heat had not yet seen a team that could score with them. Milwaukee, Chicago, and Indiana were clearly deficient in that regard, making them all inevitable means towards another Eastern Conference title for the Heat. 

The San Antonio Spurs have presented a more potent challenge for the defending champions, as expected. The best passing team in basketball has put doubters and low-IQ basketball fans on notice with their consummately savvy play, defensive discipline, and veteran leadership. With the exception of Game 2 (84) the Spurs have scored 90 points or more in every game, including at least 100 points in four out of six games. Their offense has a special cohesive quality, in that you hardly ever see just one guy carrying the load. We've seen Tony Parker make big plays/shots starting with the go-ahead shot from the Spurs' Game 1 victory; we've seen Danny Green emerge into the spotlight, setting a new NBA Finals record for made three pointers (26); we've seen Kawhi Leonard accept his daunting assignment of LeBron James, while finding ways to contribute offensively through rebounding and wise shot selection, and that's without mentioning the play of Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili and Gary Neal (both sporadically), and Boris Diaw, who has held LeBron James to 3-18 shooting while defending him in games 5 and 6. 

The Miami Heat have seen their struggles in their third consecutive NBA Finals appearance. They have been held under 90 points twice in this series, including the Game 3 blow out loss when they could only accumulate 77 points. Fluctuation has been the key issue for Miami, which is a courteous way of saying inconsistent. Their inability to win consecutive games needs instant fixing if they are to win their second straight title tonight. Still, their MVP LeBron James has delivered each time his team's back was against the wall. After all, he is averaging 33.8 ppg in his Game 7 career, the highest of any player in NBA history. Playing on your home court and having the best player on the floor = advantage Miami for Game 7. Here are some interesting additional stats:

• The Miami Heat could become just the third team in history to win an NBA title without leading the series at all until Game 7 (other two: '69 Celtics & '78 Bullets).
• The Miami Heat could become the third team in history to win Game 7's in the Conference Finals and NBA Finals in the same season (other two: '62 Celtics & '88 Lakers).
• The San Antonio Spurs have not lost consecutive games with Duncan, Parker, and Ginobili in the line up since December 12-13, 2012.
• The defending champion has never lost at home in Game 7 of the Finals.
• Tim Duncan could become the seventh player in NBA history to with 5 NBA titles and an MVP in his career (other six: Russell, Kareem, Jordan, Cousy, Magic, Kobe).
• LeBron James could join Michael Jordan and Bill Russell as the only players to win back-to-back regular season MVP awards and NBA titles.

HERE'S WHAT I'LL BE LOOKING FOR IN TONIGHT'S GAME 7:

- Manu Ginobili/Dwayne Wade: Both players are the hidden catalysts for their respective Big 3's, and both have shown brief glimpses of their former greatness. Which ever one of these players can establish early productivity will likely be on the team that has early rhythm.

- Shot takers and shot makers: As simple as it is, both teams need to make perimeter shots. Chalmers-Allen-Miller-Bosh-Battier for Miami; Ginobili-Neal-Leonard-Green for San Antonio.

- Small ball: Both teams have flirted with their four-guard smaller line ups. Given the nature of Game 7, expect to see Tiago Splitter and Chris Andersen make appearances to keep things physical.

- LeBron James' points, field goal percentage, and +/- numbers are all extremely low with Dwayne Wade on the floor. Their ability to make plays for themselves and others will have enormous impact on the outcome.

- Efficiency: The Spurs pride themselves on getting the best shots possible. They will need to shoot a high percentage and get themselves great looks to sustain their half court attack.

- Body language and patience: For the home team, body language will be evident from an effort standpoint. The away team will need to be patient and aggressive at precisely the right times. Challenges for both teams for the final game of the NBA season.

2013 NBA Finals: Game 1 notes

Just one of many compelling elements to this year's NBA Finals is the impending clash of styles between these two teams. Not in the sense that they are different, but because they both like to and are highly capable of scoring the basketball.

Miami averages a league high of 108.4 points per 100 possessions, the most efficient this postseason. San Antonio is at second at 106.5. The Heat also lead the NBA in half-court efficiency, averaging .94 points per play, with the Spurs second at .93. Aside from the numbers, if you've watched either of these teams play you know they both have high-octane offensive attacks, likely giving the advantage to whichever team can find ways to neutralize the other and expose deficient match ups.

For San Antonio, the challenge is maintaining a their preferred uptempo pace against the fastest team in the NBA. The conventional plan would be to dictate a slower pace (a la Memphis, Chicago, Indiana) and look to attack the Heat where they struggle the most: in the paint and on the glass. Still, it will be intriguing to see how Miami fairs against the most potent offense than they've faced this entire postseason (by far). 

For Miami, it's all about LeBron James, or is it? Dwayne Wade came up big in Game 7 against Indiana but a quick turnaround for his third consecutive Finals trip is something to watch for as he battles his right knee injury. San Antonio doesn't necessarily have the interior grit of Indiana, but they make up for it in savvy instincts and effort. If this series is in fact going to remain uptempo, advantage Heat. 

Key match ups:

- LeBron James/Kawhi Leonard: Much has been written and discussed about the 21-year-old's match up against the four-time MVP. Even with his athletic 6'7 frame and astounding 7'3 wingspan, he still has the toughest work weeks of his career approaching.

- Tony Parker: I expect to see multiple assignments for the Frenchman, especially LeBron. With Miami's constantly "switching" defense, those chances are not uncommon. Still, neutralizing Parker has to be a top priority as the starting engine and crucial catalyst for the Spurs' offense.

- Tim Duncan/Chris Bosh: Playing against "his idol", Bosh is up against a Tim Duncan that looks nowhere near 37 years of age. Chris "Birdman" Andersen and Udonis Haslem can assist, but Chris Bosh is the only big for Miami that can look to win the individual match up with Duncan.

Notes for Game 1:

- Tempo, tempo, tempo: The beginning pace will be most indicative of how these teams want to play, particularly San Antonio, as they adjust to the speed of Miami's defense. 

- Rested or rusty: San Antonio coming off of the ten day break, their physical energy should be evident in the opening minutes.

- Bench play: The Spurs' bench has played a bit more productively than Miami's in these playoffs, we should see players from both benches look to assert themselves tonight. 

- TURNOVERS: As the case is with ever opponent of the Heat, if you turn it over  15 times or more, you're probably done for. How the Spurs handle the Miami defense in terms of ball security and their scoring attack will be vital.

In the NBA Finals, the team that has won Game 1 has gone on to win the series 71 percent of the time. The San Antonio Spurs are 4-0 in the NBA Finals. Miami wants to repeat. Stay tuned as I continue to track and share notes on the 2013 NBA Finals.